Madagascar Unrest - Political Breakdown and Security Implications

14 Oct

Madagascar is facing a political and security crisis. Protests began over power and water shortages evolving into nationwide unrest and confrontation between the presidency and elements of the armed forces. The evacuation of President Andry Rajoelina on October 12 leaves the country in a precarious transition. For organizations, the crisis has created a highly volatile environment marked by curfews, flight suspensions, and divided military command.

ANALYSIS

Protests began in Madagascar (see Timeline of Events below) on September 25 in Antananarivo over chronic electricity and water shortages. Initial grievances quickly expanded to include: corruption, inﬂation, and political disillusionment. The demonstrations, led largely by the youth-driven “Gen Z Madagascar Movement” drew inspiration from recent digitally coordinated protests in Asia. Their use of social media and encrypted platforms allowed them to outpace the state’s capacity to contain unrest. Events rapidly escalated with the United Nations (U.N.) reporting at least 22 fatalities by the month's end.

President Rajoelina’s dismissal of his prime minister and cabinet on September 29 was intended to calm tensions but failed to quell unrest. The move was widely seen as superﬁcial, reinforcing perceptions of government detachment, sentiments compounded by the October 6 appointment of former military ﬁgures in government postings.
As protests spread to regional centers, police responses grew more violent. First person accounts detail reports of live fire shooting, looting, and indiscriminate tear gas deployment intensifying domestic anger and protest demands.

Events signiﬁcantly escalated, on October 11, when the Elements of the Corps d’Administration et Technique de la Sécurité Publique (CAPSAT), an elite military unit instrumental in Rajoelina’s 2009 rise to power, refused orders to disperse demonstrators and openly joined the protest movement.

Their defection marked the ﬁrst signiﬁcant military fracture and transformed a civilian protest into a direct challenge to the presidency.

Following subsequent clashes in the capital, between loyalist police and CAPSAT forces, President Rajoelina ﬂed Madagascar on October 13 reportedly aboard a French military aircraft. France denied direct intervention.

Despite his departure, the President vocalized his refusal to ofﬁcially step down, claiming he ﬂed amidst assaination and coup attempts. His statement was delivered via Facebook and a private news agency, because CAPSAT forces seized the national broadcasting agency, canceling his 7pm address, marking the ﬁrst instance of a presidential statement not broadcast by the national broadcasting service.

The political crisis escalated further on October 14 following the Presidency’s dissolution of the National Assembly, issued under Article 60 of the Constitution. The decree occurred as lawmakers were preparing to initiate impeachment proceedings.

The opposition refused to accept the presidential declaration, members of Rajoelina's party were present at the impeachment vote in the national assembly voting overwhelmingly against the president in spite of the dissolution of the assembly.

Following the vote military members of CAPSAT have reportedly seized power.
- A spokesman has conﬁrmed that CAPSAT will now create a committee with ofﬁcers from the army,
  gendarmerie and national police and within a few days plan to set up civilian rule.
Throughout the events protesters remain on the streets of Madagascar's capital. The military’s uniﬁed response
to the gatherings will dictate Madagascar’s stability.

OUTLOOK

We assess events in the region appear to be at a critical juncture with the President in exile and seemingly unable to govern, a political transition is underway. Madagascar’s stability now appears dependent upon the unity of military and security personnel. We anticipate the deployment of CAPSAT aligned forces across the capital and the extension of curfews, as the military seeks to bring about order and cement their rule. The solidarity of the military remains unclear at this stage but will dictate the coming days events.

A return of President Rajoelina appears highly unlikely due to intense societal pressure. Any new government will need to secure not only broad military control, but also public legitimacy to prevent further unrest and prolonged instability.

Operational disruptions are expected to persist in the coming weeks. Air travel continues to be severely restricted as the airport repeatedly closes amid ongoing unrest. Curfew mandates persist, and essential services are under strain. Mobility and logistics remain limited, constraining both humanitarian and business operations.

Supply chains are also likely to remain unreliable, communications intermittent, and essential services, particularly energy, transport, and healthcare, will remain underperforming.

Beyond the immediate crisis, the turmoil highlights deep systemic challenges. Without addressing entrenched service

delivery failures, any temporary stabilization risks being short-lived, perpetuating a cycle of unrest and instability.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Concentric recommends the following steps for organizations and personnel operating in or connected to Madagascar amid the current political and military crisis.

Travel and Mobility

Suspend all non-essential travel to Madagascar, particularly Antananarivo, until there is a veriﬁed stabilization of security command and re-establishment of coherent government authority.
For critical or mission-dependent travel (e.g., humanitarian, diplomatic, or corporate continuity operations), conduct real-time security liaison with aviation authorities and charter operators; commercial ﬂights are likely to face irregular suspensions and diversions.
Ensure all personnel possess updated travel documentation (passports/visas) and identify emergency exit routes including ground and maritime alternatives if air evacuation becomes infeasible.

Shelter-in-Place Protocols

If currently in-country, maintain a low visibility posture. Avoid travel even during daytime hours unless necessary.
Secure premises against potential looting or opportunistic crime, which typically increases during periods of fragmented law enforcement. Reinforce entry points and establish safe rooms with independent lighting and ventilation.
Pre-position essential supplies (water, food, fuel, medical kits) sufﬁcient for a minimum seven to 10 days of
disruption.
Avoid all protest sites, government buildings, and military installations, as these remain primary ﬂashpoints for violence and crossﬁre between rival forces.

3. Compliance and Curfew Adherence

Comply strictly with any curfews and movement restrictions, which may shift daily and vary between provinces.
Monitor local radio, embassy channels, and verified digital networks for real-time curfew updates, official channels may be unreliable due to the seizure of state broadcasting infrastructure.

4. Intelligence and Monitoring

Monitor official advisories (embassies, U.N., African Union) and trusted local contacts for situational updates.
Leverage NGO coordination mechanisms or private security information networks for independent verification of events, as misinformation is proliferating via social media and unofficial news outlets.
Consider contacting a regional intelligence analyst for daily threat summaries, especially regarding protests events, airspace restrictions, and protest flashpoints.

5. Strategic and Long-Term Considerations

Prepare for a potentially prolonged transition period involving competing claims to authority and localized security vacuums.
Anticipate criminal opportunism, including looting, extortion, and abduction risks as state control erodes.
For organizations with critical investments in Madagascar, initiate a strategic review of exposure scenarios: ○ Protracted instability (months-long standoff and divided command).
- Military-led transitional authority with uncertain civil oversight.
- Negotiated power-sharing arrangement following international mediation.

HOW CONCENTRIC CAN HELP

Concentric offers a suite of services designed to mitigate risks and enable secure business operations in unpredictable environments:

Travel Risk Assessments and Alerting: Concentric offers customized reports offering real-time, itinerary-focused evaluations of changing geopolitical, security, and environmental conditions. We also offer tailored, real-time intelligence based on travelers’ live locations and planned movements.
OSINT and Deep and Dark Web Monitoring: Concentric provides 24/7 surveillance of open source and hidden digital channels, delivering timely insights on emerging risks and security threats.
Evacuation & Contingency Planning: Concentric’s team of intelligence and security professionals offer logistical support for crisis management, and localized assistance during emergencies.

Through Concentric’s advanced geopolitical intelligence strategies, businesses can effectively navigate travel risks, safeguard their personnel, and ensure operational continuity across global environments. For more information or to arrange a consultation to enhance your organization’s travel security capabilities, please contact our Global Intelligence team today.