SPS assesses Syria to be a highly fragmented country. The transitional government, composed of former jihadist extremists, has attempted to assert control while minority groups have resisted. The conflict between the transitional government and Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is likely to become the largest sectarian conflict in Syria since the fall of Assad. Significant concerns are emerging over the continuation of Syria as a failed state. We recommend anyone traveling to the region or with business interests conduct rigorous, up-to-date risk assessments before travel, engage in physical security throughout their time in Syria, and monitor local media for significant changes in the security situation

OVERVIEW

Syria's persistent fragmentation and slow integration process have raised the potential for continued sectarianism. The country remains politically decentralized, although growing security and military apparatus indicates the government may seek to forcefully integrate minority groups and non-state armed groups. The violence used by government and aligned forces on minorities is likely to entrench resentment and force minorities to prioritize self-defense over integration.

Territorial control of Syria (January 18, 2026)

SECTARIAN CONFLICT DEVELOPMENTS

In late November 2024, the Turkish-backed islamist jihadist Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and other opposition groups, deposed the Assad-regime in an 11-day offensive. Following the overthrow of Assad, the leader of HTS, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani), became the de facto and then appointed president of Syria. Since the deposition of Assad the transitional government has engaged in multiple sectarian conflicts, with the most significant being against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in January 2026.

Alawite minority

In March 2025, transitional government forces suppressed a former Assadist Alawite uprising, located primarily in Latakia Province. Following the suppression, transitional government forces engaged in indiscriminate violence against the Alawite community, killing at least 1,400 civilians.

The Alawites were perceived as uniformly Assad supporters by the government forces, which was a significant contributory factor in the resulting violence.

Druze minority

In early July 2025, The Druze minority located in Suwayda Governorate engaged in armed conflict against government forces. Fighting between Bedouin tribes and the Druze triggered the initial conflict, which subsequently drew government forces in, allied with the Bedouin tribes. Sporadic engagements have persisted, with the Druze minority seeking autonomy.

Israeli forces assisted the Druze with air support against government forces and with strikes against Damascus.
An official ceasefire was reached on July 19, 2025, although sporadic violations from government forces and Druze militia continue to occur.

Kurdish minority

The Kurds are an ethnic minority located in Syria, Türkiye, Iran, and Iraq and have faced significant persecution in Syria and Türkiye. During the civil war, the Kurds established an autonomous region in the northeast of the country and remain present in significant numbers in Aleppo. During the Syrian civil war, Kurdish forces fought against the Islamic State, Turkish-aligned and proxy groups, and Assad government forces.

Since the fall of Assad and the emergence of the transitional government there have been tensions and sporadic conflict between the transitional government and the SDF, the Kurdish coalition military arm of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. Key events include:

In March 2025, the U.S. brokered an agreement between President Al-Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi, the leader of the SDF, to integrate all civil and military institutions.

The SDF repeatedly failed to act upon the March agreement, likely due to skepticism caused by Syrian government forces' attacks on other minority groups in Syria, concerns of the threat from Türkiye, and concerns around command and control.

On December 22, 2025, eight days prior to the deadline for the SDF to integrate, armed engagements occurred between SDF and government forces in Aleppo.

A ceasefire was reached within twenty-four hours of the initial engagements.

On January 6, 2026, following further stalled talks on the integration, Syria government forces began an offensive against the SDF. Government forces ordered civilians to evacuate designated military zones, including Aleppo.
On January 17, 2026, SDF forces were forced to withdraw from Aleppo and government forces seized Syria’s largest oil fields.

ISIS fighters escaped amid Kurdish withdrawals. ISIS detention centers were previously administered by the SDF.

On January 18, 2026 the Syrian government announced an immediate ceasefire with the SDF, following the government’s significant territorial gains. The agreement included government forces taking control of Raqqa, Deir Az Zor and Hasakah, and the full integration of SDF forces in the Syrian army.
On January 19, 2026, further fighting occurred and on January 20, the government announced a four day ceasefire.

Syrian Government Offensive into SDF Held Territory (January 13-20, 2026)

OUTLOOK AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Looking ahead, the security environment in Syria remains highly volatile. Initial optimism following the fall of Assad has given way to endemic sectarianism. SPS assesses further conflict between government forces and the SDF remains likely despite the ceasefire agreement. Repeated breaches during the initial ceasefire and a subsequent four-day ceasefire underscore persistent instability. Mistrust between the Turkish-aligned Syrian government and Kurdish forces continues, while political efforts to address underlying grievances remain limited. Additional sectarian conflict between government forces and minority groups across Syria is also likely to persist through 2026, as the government pursues integration and unity while minority communities seek autonomy and self-protection.

The U.S. State Department to maintain its Level 4 – Do Not Travel advisory, citing terrorism, unrest, kidnapping or hostage taking, and crime risks. SPS recommends the following steps for anyone planning travel to Syria or the broader region in the coming months:

Prior to travel, it is critical to conduct comprehensive risk assessments, secure reliable intelligence on political, criminal, and infrastructure-related risks, and coordinate movements with trusted local contacts or authorities.
Ensure appropriate insurances are in place prior to any travel, which should include adequate kidnap ransom extortion coverage.
Private security support is also strongly advised for personal safety and logistical coordination. Travelers should maintain a discreet profile, limit movements during evening hours, and ensure reliable, pre-vetted transportation is used at all times.
Travel tracking tools and secure communication channels should be employed so movements are monitored in real time by a designated security contact.
While on the ground, visitors should dress conservatively, avoid displays of wealth, and minimize solo movements. If confronted with a robbery or threat, disengaging and moving to safety should take precedence over resistance. Remaining alert to the possibility of armed groups impersonating security personnel is essential for mitigating risks.

HOW CONCENTRIC and SPS CAN HELP

Given Syria’s complex and volatile operating environment, Concentric offers a suite of services designed to mitigate risks and enable secure business operations:

Travel Risk Assessments and Alerting: Concentric offers customized reports offering real-time, itinerary-focused evaluations of changing geopolitical, security, and environmental conditions. We also offer tailored, real-time intelligence based on travelers’ live locations and planned movements.
OSINT and Deep and Dark Web Monitoring: Concentric provides 24/7 surveillance of open source and hidden digital channels, delivering timely insights on emerging risks and security threats.
Evacuation & Contingency Planning: Concentric’s team of intelligence and security professionals offer logistical support for crisis management, including detailed evacuation route mapping, identification of secure shelters, and localized assistance during emergencies.

Through Concentric’s advanced geopolitical intelligence strategies, businesses can effectively navigate travel risks, safeguard their personnel, and ensure operational continuity across global environments. For more information or to arrange a consultation to enhance your organization’s travel security capabilities, please contact our Global Intelligence team today.

Syrian Democratic Forces Conflict