The Malacca Dilemma in 2026: Lessons from the Strait of Hormuz
The Malacca Dilemma in 2026: Lessons from the Strait of Hormuz
For the Indo-Pacific, the Hormuz crisis has renewed attention on China's long-standing "Malacca Dilemma": Beijing's dependence on the Strait of Malacca as the primary maritime route for energy imports and global trade. While China has invested heavily in alternative energy routes, strategic reserves and naval capabilities, the country remains exposed to disruption of a maritime corridor through which a significant proportion of its energy supply and commercial trade flows.
2026 Q3 Risk Map
We're delighted to publish our 2026 Q3 SPS Risk Map which assesses the levels of risk faced by organisations and individuals due to terrorism, political violence, localised conflicts, war, political threats, criminal activities, kidnapping, ransom, detention, and extortion.
The Red Sea: Iran's Next Deterrence Strategy
The Red Sea: Iran's Next Deterrence Strategy
The Islamabad memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on 17 June 2026 ended the initial phase of the Middle East conflict but left control of the Strait of Hormuz deliberately unresolved: it committed Iran only to "best efforts" for safe passage, with a 60-day suspension of transit fees which implicitly provided an opportunity for Iran to reintroduce charges once the window closed.
U.S.-Iran Tensions and the Risk of Regional Escalation
U.S.-Iran Tensions and the Risk of Regional Escalation
Tensions between the United States and Iran show a convergence of military posturing, political brinkmanship, and unresolved regional disputes, increasing the risk of miscalculation and wider conflict.
Syrian Democratic Forces Conflict
Syrian Democratic Forces Conflict
SPS assesses Syria to be a highly fragmented country. The transitional government, composed of former jihadist extremists, has attempted to assert control while minority groups have resisted. The conflict between the transitional government and Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is likely to become the largest sectarian conflict in Syria since the fall of Assad.
Venezuela Outlook Report
Venezuela Outlook Report
The U.S. operation to detain Nicolás Maduro removed the head of state while preserving Venezuela’s governing and security architecture and ensuring U.S. decisive leverage over the country’s political and economic direction.
Organized Crime in France
Organized crime in France:
Organized crime in France presents an increasing security challenge. Marseille is the focal point of concern due to high profile drug-driven violence, firearms proliferation, and significant youth recruitment.
Southern Transitional Council Expansion in Yemen
Southern Transitional Council Expansion in Yemen:
The Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) territorial gains in December 2025 caused significant shifts in Yemen’s internal balance of power, fracturing the previously unified anti-Houthi coalition and accelerating potential partition.
Global Insights Special: Digital Threats, Deep Web Intelligence & Travel Risk in 2026
Digital footprints and online sentiment now shape real-world risk more than ever. Yari McBride explains how SPS monitors threats across the surface, deep and dark web and how Eclipse protects clients before criminals can find them.
Global Insights Special: Global KRE Trends - What to Expect in 2026
Kidnap, ransom and extortion threats are shifting as cyber-enabled crime accelerates worldwide. In this briefing, Alex Edwards and Rob Hodgkinson outline the key hotspots, emerging tactics, and priorities for organisations heading into 2026.
Global Insights Special: Kidnap, Piracy & Cyber Extortion - Evolving Threats in 2025–2026
Modern kidnap and extortion threats are evolving faster than ever, blending physical and cyber tactics. In this Global Insights Special, Martyn Barnes breaks down the trends shaping 2025–26 and what organisations need to prepare for now.
Global Insights Special: Securing Major Global Events & FIFA World Cup 2026
With FIFA 2026 approaching, the scale and complexity of global events are entering a new era. Martyn Barnes explores the risks, planning considerations, and layered protection strategies required to keep clients safe on the world stage.
Crime: Organized Crime Risks in Cambodia
Crime: Organized Crime Risks in Cambodia
Cambodia has become a major hotspot for organized crime in Southeast Asia, where weak oversight and rapid economic expansion have enabled cyber-fraud networks, trafficking operations, and criminal groups linked to the casino sector to operate with growing sophistication.
Ukraine Peace Plan: Strategic, Political, and Security Implications
Ukraine Peace Plan: Strategic, Political, and Security Implications
The proposed peace plan for Ukraine injects urgency into negotiations amid sustained battlefield pressure and wavering Western cohesion.
Marburg Virus Outbreak: Ethiopia
Marburg Virus Outbreak: Ethiopia
Ethiopia is facing its first confirmed outbreak of Marburg virus, with at least eight laboratory-confirmed cases and five deaths in the South Ethiopia Region.
Madagascar Unrest - Political Breakdown and Security Implications
Madagascar: Political Breakdown and Security Implications
What began as protests over power and water shortages has evolved into nationwide demonstrations, military fractures, and the evacuation of President Andry Rajoelina.
Gen Z Protests
Gen Z has increasingly emerged as a key actor in global protest movements, utilizing digital platforms to demand systemic reforms in areas such as climate change, labor rights, and political accountability. Gen Z-led protests have occurred in various regions, including South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, North Africa, and South America, reflecting a heightened political awareness, tech fluency, and transnational connectivity among the youth. Governments’ responses have varied from concessions to crackdowns, with broader implications for regional stability and governance.
Syria Special Report - Security and Sectarian Violence
This report analyses the Luzon Economic Corridor, a trilateral economic initiative between the United States, the Philippines, and Japan. Exploring China’s regional influence, investment opportunities, security concerns, and economic forecasts, highlighting how the LEC strengthens Western economic and strategic interests.
The Luzon Economic Corridor
This report analyses the Luzon Economic Corridor, a trilateral economic initiative between the United States, the Philippines, and Japan. Exploring China’s regional influence, investment opportunities, security concerns, and economic forecasts, highlighting how the LEC strengthens Western economic and strategic interests.
2025 Risk Map
We're delighted to publish our 2025 SPS Risk Map which assesses the levels of risk faced by organisations and individuals due to terrorism, political violence, localised conflicts, war, political threats, criminal activities, kidnapping, ransom, detention, and extortion.